Selection of Emergency Resource Mobilization Cooperation Mode Based on Binary Semantic GRP Method
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摘要:为对应急资源动员合作模式的选择提供量化依据,建立了应急资源动员中地方政府合作的“介入—强度—方式”三维结构模型,从中选取4种典型合作模式,将模式选择问题转化为具有语言评价信息的多指标群决策问题。采用基于二元语义灰色关联投影的信息处理群决策方法,构建了合作模式的选择模型。依据传统投影分析方法的基本思想,通过计算备选方案对正理想方案和负理想方案的投影值,得到备选方案对正理想方案的相对贴近度,最终确定最优方案。在理论研究基础上,对京津冀地区应急资源动员合作模式进行实证分析,发现京津冀地区的应急资源动员合作更适合采取上级政府介入的强行政合作模式。基于专家评价数据的算例结果表明,该方法能够较好地反映合作模式与客观情况的匹配程度,在模式选择中发挥较好的作用。Abstract:In order to provide quantitative basis for the selection of emergency resource mobilization cooperation mode, a three-dimensional structural model "intervention-intensity-method" was established for local government cooperation in emergency resource mobilization. Based on 4 typical cooperation modes, the means of cooperation mode selection was transformed into a multi-index group decision problem with linguistic evaluation information. Applying information processing group decision method based on binary semantic grey relational projection, a selection model was constructed for cooperation mode. According to the basic idea of the traditional projection analysis method, the relative closeness of the alternative to the positive ideal scheme was obtained by calculating the projection value of the alternative scheme to the positive ideal scheme and the negative ideal scheme, and finally the optimal scheme was determined. On the basis of theoretical research, an empirical analysis of the emergency resource mobilization cooperation model was carried out in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results show that the emergency resource mobilization cooperation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is more suitable for a strong administrative cooperation model with higher-level government intervention. Calculation results based on expert evaluation data show that this method can better reflect the matching degree between the cooperation mode and the objective situation, and play a better role in mode selection.
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表 1合作模式主观维度要素编码
Table 1.Coding of subjective dimension elements in cooperation mode
维度 动员介入维 动员强度维 动员方式维 要素 全面介入(C1) 全面性动员(I1) 强行政动员(M1) 部分介入(C2) 区域动员(I2) 折中动员(M2) 弱介入(C3) 局部动员(I3) 强经济动员(M3) 表 2地方政府动员合作模式
Table 2.Local government mobilization and cooperation model
坐标Sn 描述 作用点坐标 $ {S_1} $ C1I1M1 全面介入,全面性动员,强行政动员 $ {S_2} $ C1I2M1 全面介入,区域动员,强行政动员 $ {S_3} $ C2I2M1 部分介入,区域动员,强行政动员 $ {S_4} $ C2I2M2 部分介入,区域动员,折中动员 $ {S_5} $ C2I3M1 部分介入,局部动员,强行政动员 $ {S_6} $ C2I3M2 部分介入,局部动员,折中动员 $ {S_7} $ C3I2M2 弱介入,区域动员,折中动员 $ {S_8} $ C3I2M3 弱介入,区域动员,强经济动员 $ {S_9} $ C3I3M3 弱介入,局部动员,强经济动员 表 3应急资源动员合作模式及主要特征
Table 3.Cooperation mode and main characteristics of emergency resource mobilization
合作模式 价值实现 主要手段 经济特征 风险承担者 介入强行政型(A1) 强时效 行政 互补性弱 上级政府,地方政府,合作政府 介入强经济型(A2) 强经济 经济 互补性稍弱 上级政府,地方政府,合作政府 不介入强行政型(A3) 强时效 行政 互补性稍强 地方政府,合作政府 不介入强经济型(A4) 强经济 经济 互补性强 地方政府 表 4应急资源动员合作模式评价指标体系
Table 4.Evaluation indicator system of emergency resource mobilization cooperation mode
一级指标 二级指标 指标含义 生产要素 动员量(C1) 一类或几类应急资源在动员活动中动员数量的多少. 互补性(C2) 应急资源在动员过程中数量或者种类上必须互相补充,才能共同满足动员活动中的某一种或几种需要的特性. 可靠性(C3) 应急资源在一定时间内、在一定条件下无故障地执行指定功能的能力. 可靠性包含了耐久性、可维修性、设计可靠性三大要素. 管理端要素 时效性(C4) 在应急资源调配过程中仅在特定时间内对动员保障活动具有价值的指标. 经济性(C5) 动员活动中获得一定数量和质量的应急资源和服务以最少的消耗,取得最大经济成果的能力. 协同性(C6) 参与动员的各地方政府在动员活动中协调与合作的能力. 安全性(C7) 动员过程中,动员系统承受可能出现的各种压力的能力,以及在突发事件发生时和发生后,仍保持必要的整体稳定性的能力. 表 5专家1给出的二元语义决策矩阵
Table 5.Binary semantic decision matrix given by expert 1
合作模式 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 A1 (s6,0) (s4,0) (s6,0) (s6,0) (s3,0) (s6,0) (s6,0) A2 (s3,0) (s3,0) (s4,0) (s4,0) (s5,0) (s4,0) (s4,0) A3 (s1,0) (s4,0) (s4,0) (s4,0) (s2,0) (s5,0) (s2,0) A4 (s0,0) (s1,0) (s1,0) (s1,0) (s5,0) (s2,0) (s0,0) 表 6决策者权重
Table 6.Weights of decision makers
权重 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10 w 0.1000 0.0962 0.1006 0.0984 0.1043 0.0980 0.0993 0.1060 0.1049 0.0923 表 7合作模式在T-PIS上的相对灰色关联投影
Table 7.Relative grey relational projection of cooperation mode on T-PIS
相对灰度关联投影 A1 A2 A3 A4 GPi 0.6916 0.6011 0.3753 0.3357 表 8合作模式与T-PIS之间的灰色关联系数矩阵的列和
Table 8.Column sums of gray correlation coefficient matrix between cooperation mode and T-PIS
灰色关联系数和 C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7 $\varepsilon _{_j}^ + $ 2.6128 2.8081 2.1994 2.5161 2.5645 2.1798 2.0385 表 9相对灰色关联投影
Table 9.Relative grey relational projection
相对灰度关联投影 A1 A2 A3 A4 GPi 0.6658 0.5335 0.4022 0.3521 -
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