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气候变化是全球共同面临的巨大挑战。IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 第六次评估报告的最新研究指出,预计未来20年(2040年前后)地球表面变暖将达到1.5℃,要实现在21世纪末将全球温升控制在不超过工业化前1.5℃的目标,未来10年全球需大幅减少CO2排放[1]。中国积极实施减缓气候变化的国家战略,提出“力争2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和”的目标。根据中国气候变化综合评估模型C3IAM的评估结果显示[2],中国2060碳中和目标是超越2℃,面向1.5℃目标的深度脱碳行动。
然而,中国实现碳中和目标时间紧、任务重,是一项复杂系统工程。科学制定减排的时间表和路线图,需要处理好长期与短期、减排与发展、局部与总体的协同关系[3-4]。为此,综合碳中和路径优化设计的实际需求,本文应用自主设计构建的C3IAM/NET模型,综合考虑社会、经济、行为、技术的不确定性对终端用能产品(如钢铁、水泥、化工产品、铝、造纸等工业产品)和服务需求(取暖、制冷、照明、客/货物运输等服务)的影响,以满足未来各行业产品和服务供给需求为前提,以需定产,从能源供需系统总成本最优的角度动态优化2022—2060年的全行业技术布局,最终提出多情景下兼顾经济性和安全性的中国碳达峰碳中和时间表和路线图,明确中国碳排放总体路径、行业减排责任、重点技术规划等多个层面的具体行动方案,旨在为中国引领和参与全球气候治理提供可操作的方案。C3IAM/NET模型目前涵盖一次能源供应、电力、热力、钢铁、水泥、化工(乙烯/甲醇/合成氨/电石等多种关键产品)、有色、造纸、农业、建筑(居民/商业)、交通(城市/城际,客运/货运)、其他工业等20个细分行业的重点技术[5-18]。本文将重点介绍在各行业共同合作下,以经济最优方式实现全国总体碳达峰碳中和目标对应的全国及行业时间表和路线图。本文仅探讨能源系统(含能源加工转换、运输配送、终端使用、末端治理过程)相关的CO2排放,包括工业过程排放。关于模型方法的具体介绍以及情景和参数的设定请见本文的姊妹篇“中国碳达峰碳中和路径优化方法”。
Roadmap for Achieving China’s Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality Pathway
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摘要:实现中国碳中和目标时间紧、任务重,是一项复杂系统工程。科学制定减排的时间表和路线图,需要处理好长期与短期、减排与发展、局部与总体的协同关系。为此,应用自主设计并构建的国家能源技术模型(C 3IAM/NET),提出了兼顾经济性和安全性的中国碳达峰碳中和时间表和路线图,明确了中国碳排放总体路径、行业减排责任、重点技术规划等多个层面的具体行动方案。结果表明:当2060年碳汇可用量为10~30亿吨时,为达到低成本和安全实现“双碳”目标的要求,在不同社会经济发展情景下,中国需在2026—2029年间实现碳达峰,峰值不超过127亿吨CO 2(含工业过程排放);2060年的碳排放主要来源于电力、钢铁、化工、交通等部门;为实现碳中和目标,能源结构需加速转型,但2040年前中国仍将是以煤为主的能源格局,2030年煤炭占比不低于44%。在全国和行业路线图基础上,进一步给出了实现全国“双碳”目标对应的钢铁、水泥、有色、化工、建筑、交通、电力等重点行业的碳排放路径和技术布局方案,为中国引领和参与全球气候治理提供了科学依据和可操作性的行动方案。Abstract:Achieving carbon neutrality is a complex project, facing the challenges of very limited time and heavy task. To formulate a scientific roadmap for emission reduction, it requires us to balance the synergy between long-term and short-term actions, emission reduction and economic development, and local and overall targets. To this end, this study applied the National Energy Technology Model (C 3IAM / NET) to put forward the timetable and roadmap for achieving China’s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goal that takes into account the cost-effectiveness and safety. The specific action plan of national carbon emission path, sectoral emission reduction responsibility, and key technology layout is clearly present here. The results show that if the natural carbon sink is 1-3 billion tons available in 2060, China needs to achieve the carbon peak during 2026—2029 depending on the scenarios of the socio-economic development; the carbon emissions in 2060 are mainly from power industry, iron and steel industry, chemical industry, transportation sector, etc.; and it is necessary to accelerate the energy transition towards clean energy, but coal will still be the largest energy source in China before 2040, which needs to be no less than 44% in 2030. In addition, this study further gives the carbon emission path and technology layout plan for key industries corresponding to the national carbon peak and carbon neutrality roadmap, such as iron and steel, cement, nonferrous metals, chemical, and power industry as well as building and transportation sectors. This can provide a scientific basis and operational action plan for China to lead and participate in global climate governance.
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